2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
North Carolina @ Clemson
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Carolina
23.9
Clemson
26.6
Clemson win probability: 57%
Margin (Clemson − North Carolina): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: North Carolina 20 – Clemson 28 (margin error 5.3, total error 2.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:32 PM | 11.9 | 53.6 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:37 PM | 11.8 | 53.5 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:00 PM | 11.9 | 53.5 | 77% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:36 AM | 11.8 | 53.6 | 77% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:24 PM | 11.8 | 53.6 | 77% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:32 PM | 10.7 | 53.5 | 75% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:12 PM | 4.4 | 53.1 | 61% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:02 PM | 2.7 | 50.5 | 57% |