2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium
Bowling Green @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreConfident
Bowling Green
14.4
Iowa State
37.1
Iowa State win probability: 93%
Margin (Iowa State − Bowling Green): 22.7 (80% range 3 to 42)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 30 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.94% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 22.9 | 51.9 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:37 PM | 22.7 | 52.0 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:59 PM | 22.7 | 51.4 | 93% |