2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium
Bowling Green @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreConfident
Bowling Green
11.7
Iowa State
40.2
Iowa State win probability: 97%
Margin (Iowa State − Bowling Green): 28.5 (80% range 8 to 49)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Bowling Green 7 – Iowa State 55 (margin error 19.5, total error 10.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.96% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.85% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:33 PM | 22.9 | 51.9 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:37 PM | 22.7 | 52.0 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:59 PM | 22.7 | 51.4 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:37 AM | 22.7 | 51.4 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:22 PM | 23.0 | 52.1 | 93% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:35 PM | 22.7 | 51.7 | 93% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:15 PM | 23.5 | 51.1 | 94% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:04 PM | 28.5 | 51.9 | 97% |