Predicted scoreConfident
Akron
15.2
Minnesota
33.5
Minnesota win probability: 89%
Margin (Minnesota − Akron): 18.3 (80% range -1 to 38)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Akron 7 – Minnesota 41 (margin error 15.7, total error 0.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:36 PM | 22.2 | 49.0 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:37 PM | 21.9 | 49.0 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:02 PM | 22.2 | 48.8 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:37 AM | 22.3 | 49.1 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:24 PM | 22.3 | 49.1 | 93% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:36 PM | 22.9 | 49.6 | 93% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:13 PM | 21.0 | 48.9 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:03 PM | 18.3 | 48.7 | 89% |