2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 AM · Jones AT&T Stadium
Houston @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
21.8
Texas Tech
31.5
Texas Tech win probability: 73%
Margin (Texas Tech − Houston): 9.8 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Houston 26 – Texas Tech 28 (margin error 7.8, total error 0.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:42 PM | 12.9 | 51.6 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:35 PM | 12.9 | 51.5 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:56 PM | 13.0 | 51.6 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:29 AM | 12.9 | 51.5 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:21 PM | 12.9 | 51.9 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:29 PM | 12.7 | 51.2 | 79% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:08 PM | 13.0 | 52.3 | 80% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:00 PM | 9.8 | 53.3 | 73% |