2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM · FAU Stadium
Navy @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreLikely
Navy
32.7
Florida Atlantic
21.8
Florida Atlantic win probability: 25%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − Navy): -10.9 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Navy 30 – Florida Atlantic 38 (margin error 18.9, total error 13.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:20 PM | -8.3 | 51.1 | 30% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:32 PM | -8.1 | 51.1 | 30% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:49 PM | -8.1 | 51.1 | 30% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:05 AM | -8.1 | 51.0 | 30% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:52 PM | -8.1 | 51.1 | 30% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:30 PM | -8.1 | 51.0 | 30% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:43 PM | -10.9 | 54.5 | 25% |