2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM · Fifth Third Stadium
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State
Predicted scoreLean
Georgia State
23.0
Kennesaw State
30.4
Kennesaw State win probability: 68%
Margin (Kennesaw State − Georgia State): 7.5 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 30 to 79)
Actual: Georgia State 31 – Kennesaw State 17 (margin error 21.5, total error 5.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:22 PM | 5.8 | 53.4 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:31 PM | 6.2 | 53.5 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:40 PM | 6.0 | 53.2 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:58 AM | 5.9 | 53.6 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:01:51 PM | 6.2 | 53.7 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:27 PM | 6.9 | 53.9 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:36 PM | 7.5 | 53.4 | 68% |