2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 10:00 PM · Albertsons Stadium
Memphis @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLean
Memphis
24.0
Boise State
30.5
Boise State win probability: 65%
Margin (Boise State − Memphis): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:19 PM | 6.5 | 54.5 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:29 PM | 6.4 | 54.6 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:38 PM | 6.4 | 54.5 | 65% |