Predicted scoreLean
Duke
26.6
Illinois
30.8
Illinois win probability: 60%
Margin (Illinois − Duke): 4.2 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:21 PM | 4.2 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:26 PM | 4.2 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:32 PM | 4.2 | 57.4 | 60% |