2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM · Huntington Bank Stadium
Mississippi State @ Minnesota
Predicted scoreToss-up
Mississippi State
26.8
Minnesota
24.4
Minnesota win probability: 44%
Margin (Minnesota − Mississippi State): -2.4 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Mississippi State 38 – Minnesota 13 (margin error 22.6, total error 0.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:24 PM | 2.8 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:28 PM | 2.9 | 51.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:31 PM | 2.9 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:00 AM | 2.8 | 51.2 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:06 PM | 2.8 | 51.1 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:50 PM | 1.9 | 50.4 | 55% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:59 PM | -2.4 | 51.3 | 44% |