2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 4:00 PM · Boone Pickens Stadium
Oregon @ Oklahoma State
Predicted scoreConfident
Oregon
39.9
Oklahoma State
16.3
Oklahoma State win probability: 8%
Margin (Oklahoma State − Oregon): -23.6 (80% range -45 to -3)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 34 to 81)
Actual: Oregon 31 – Oklahoma State 39 (margin error 31.6, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 10 | 0.80% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.69% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 45 | 10 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:25 PM | -24.9 | 56.2 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:25 PM | -24.8 | 56.2 | 6% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:23 PM | -24.8 | 56.0 | 6% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:45 AM | -24.8 | 55.9 | 6% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:00 PM | -24.9 | 56.1 | 6% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:43 PM | -24.9 | 56.0 | 6% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:52 PM | -23.6 | 56.2 | 8% |