2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 4:00 PM · Michie Stadium
South Florida @ Army
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
24.7
Army
23.4
Army win probability: 47%
Margin (Army − South Florida): -1.3 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 48.1 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: South Florida 28 – Army 24 (margin error 2.7, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:18 PM | -3.1 | 49.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:23 PM | -3.2 | 49.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:26 PM | -3.3 | 49.2 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:42 AM | -3.2 | 49.0 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:00 PM | -3.2 | 49.2 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:42 PM | -2.9 | 49.0 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:50 PM | -1.3 | 48.1 | 47% |