2026 Week 1 · Sep 6, 2026, 11:30 PM · Nissan Stadium (neutral site)
Louisville @ Ole Miss
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
24.4
Ole Miss
30.7
Ole Miss win probability: 65%
Margin (Ole Miss − Louisville): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:13 PM | 6.2 | 55.2 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:22 PM | 6.2 | 55.2 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:17 PM | 6.3 | 55.0 | 65% |