2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:45 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Predicted scoreConfident
Florida Atlantic
17.3
Florida
35.1
Florida win probability: 88%
Margin (Florida − Florida Atlantic): 17.8 (80% range -2 to 38)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.72% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:07 PM | 17.6 | 52.4 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:20 PM | 17.6 | 52.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:13 PM | 17.8 | 52.4 | 88% |