2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:00 PM · Raymond James Stadium
Florida International @ South Florida
Predicted scoreConfident
Florida International
16.2
South Florida
35.9
South Florida win probability: 89%
Margin (South Florida − Florida International): 19.7 (80% range 0 to 40)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:14 PM | 19.7 | 52.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:19 PM | 19.6 | 52.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:08 PM | 19.7 | 52.1 | 89% |