2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 7:45 PM · Chapman Stadium
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa
Predicted scoreLean
Oklahoma State
31.0
Tulsa
25.6
Tulsa win probability: 37%
Margin (Tulsa − Oklahoma State): -5.4 (80% range -27 to 15)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:16 PM | -5.4 | 56.6 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:17 PM | -5.4 | 56.6 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:06 PM | -5.4 | 56.6 | 37% |