2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 4:30 PM · Ohio Stadium
Ball State @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
3.9
Ohio State
45.6
Ohio State win probability: 100%
Margin (Ohio State − Ball State): 41.7 (80% range 21 to 63)
Total: 49.6 (80% range 28 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 2.57% |
| 0 | 45 | 2.38% |
| 0 | 42 | 2.15% |
| 0 | 31 | 2.15% |
| 0 | 35 | 2.00% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:12 PM | 41.5 | 49.3 | 100% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:15 PM | 41.6 | 49.6 | 100% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:59 PM | 41.7 | 49.6 | 100% |