2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 4:00 PM · TDECU Stadium
Oregon State @ Houston
Predicted scoreConfident
Oregon State
17.5
Houston
34.7
Houston win probability: 86%
Margin (Houston − Oregon State): 17.2 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 35 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:09 PM | 15.8 | 52.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:14 PM | 15.8 | 52.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:57 PM | 17.2 | 52.2 | 86% |