Predicted scoreConfident
UAB
15.7
Illinois
37.1
Illinois win probability: 92%
Margin (Illinois − UAB): 21.4 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:09 PM | 21.3 | 52.7 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:12 PM | 21.3 | 52.8 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:25:51 PM | 21.4 | 52.8 | 92% |