Predicted scoreToss-up
Memphis
28.6
UNLV
29.6
UNLV win probability: 52%
Margin (UNLV − Memphis): 1.0 (80% range -20 to 22)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: Memphis 27 – UNLV 21 (margin error 7.0, total error 10.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.