2025 Postseason · Jan 3, 2026, 1:00 AM · Snapdragon Stadium (neutral site)

Arizona @ SMU

Predicted scoreLikely

Arizona

21.8

SMU

33.4

SMU win probability: 76%

Margin (SMU − Arizona): 11.5 (80% range -9 to 32)

Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Arizona 19 – SMU 24 (margin error 6.5, total error 12.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.