2025 Postseason · Jan 1, 2026, 9:00 PM · Rose Bowl (neutral site)

Alabama @ Indiana

Predicted scoreToss-up

Alabama

29.3

Indiana

27.4

Indiana win probability: 45%

Margin (Indiana − Alabama): -1.9 (80% range -23 to 19)

Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Alabama 3 – Indiana 38 (margin error 36.9, total error 15.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.