2025 Postseason · Dec 31, 2025, 8:00 PM · Camping World Stadium (neutral site)

Michigan @ Texas

Predicted scoreLean

Michigan

19.1

Texas

26.2

Texas win probability: 68%

Margin (Texas − Michigan): 7.1 (80% range -12 to 27)

Total: 45.3 (80% range 24 to 68)

Actual: Michigan 27 – Texas 41 (margin error 6.9, total error 22.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.