2025 Postseason · Dec 31, 2025, 7:00 PM · Sun Bowl (neutral site)

Arizona State @ Duke

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arizona State

28.4

Duke

24.7

Duke win probability: 41%

Margin (Duke − Arizona State): -3.7 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Arizona State 39 – Duke 42 (margin error 6.7, total error 27.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.