2025 Postseason · Dec 30, 2025, 10:30 PM · Nissan Stadium (neutral site)

Tennessee @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Tennessee

31.2

Illinois

20.4

Illinois win probability: 24%

Margin (Illinois − Tennessee): -10.8 (80% range -31 to 9)

Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Tennessee 28 – Illinois 30 (margin error 12.8, total error 6.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.