2025 Postseason · Dec 28, 2025, 2:15 AM · NRG Stadium (neutral site)

LSU @ Houston

Predicted scoreLikely

LSU

31.6

Houston

19.1

Houston win probability: 21%

Margin (Houston − LSU): -12.5 (80% range -32 to 7)

Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: LSU 35 – Houston 38 (margin error 15.5, total error 22.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.