2025 Postseason · Dec 28, 2025, 12:30 AM · EverBank Stadium (neutral site)

Virginia @ Missouri

Predicted scoreLikely

Virginia

20.5

Missouri

31.5

Missouri win probability: 76%

Margin (Missouri − Virginia): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Virginia 13 – Missouri 7 (margin error 17.0, total error 32.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.