Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia
20.5
Missouri
31.5
Missouri win probability: 76%
Margin (Missouri − Virginia): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Virginia 13 – Missouri 7 (margin error 17.0, total error 32.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.