2025 Postseason · Dec 27, 2025, 10:45 PM · University Stadium (NM) (neutral site)

North Texas @ San Diego State

Predicted scoreLean

North Texas

31.7

San Diego State

24.4

San Diego State win probability: 33%

Margin (San Diego State − North Texas): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 14)

Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: North Texas 49 – San Diego State 47 (margin error 5.3, total error 39.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.