2025 Postseason · Dec 27, 2025, 7:15 PM · Fenway Park (neutral site)

UConn @ Army

Predicted scoreLean

UConn

21.6

Army

26.2

Army win probability: 62%

Margin (Army − UConn): 4.5 (80% range -14 to 24)

Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 71)

Actual: UConn 16 – Army 41 (margin error 20.5, total error 9.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.