2025 Postseason · Dec 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (neutral site)

Pittsburgh @ East Carolina

Predicted scoreToss-up

Pittsburgh

28.7

East Carolina

24.7

East Carolina win probability: 40%

Margin (East Carolina − Pittsburgh): -4.0 (80% range -25 to 17)

Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Pittsburgh 17 – East Carolina 23 (margin error 10.0, total error 13.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.