2025 Postseason · Dec 21, 2025, 12:30 AM · Autzen Stadium
James Madison @ Oregon
Predicted scoreConfident
James Madison
17.5
Oregon
38.7
Oregon win probability: 91%
Margin (Oregon − James Madison): 21.1 (80% range 0 to 42)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 34 to 80)
Actual: James Madison 34 – Oregon 51 (margin error 4.1, total error 28.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 45 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.