2025 Postseason · Dec 19, 2025, 7:30 PM · Raymond James Stadium (neutral site)

Memphis @ NC State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Memphis

26.9

NC State

27.9

NC State win probability: 53%

Margin (NC State − Memphis): 1.0 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Memphis 7 – NC State 31 (margin error 23.0, total error 16.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.