2025 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2025, 1:00 AM · California Memorial Stadium

SMU @ California

Predicted scoreLikely

SMU

31.8

California

21.0

California win probability: 25%

Margin (California − SMU): -10.8 (80% range -31 to 10)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: SMU 35 – California 38 (margin error 13.8, total error 20.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.