2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 9:30 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Florida State @ Florida

Predicted scoreToss-up

Florida State

26.7

Florida

25.1

Florida win probability: 46%

Margin (Florida − Florida State): -1.6 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 51.8 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Florida State 21 – Florida 40 (margin error 20.6, total error 9.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.