2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 8:00 PM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreLean

Middle Tennessee

26.3

New Mexico State

31.6

New Mexico State win probability: 63%

Margin (New Mexico State − Middle Tennessee): 5.4 (80% range -15 to 27)

Total: 57.9 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 31 – New Mexico State 24 (margin error 12.4, total error 2.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.