2024 Week 3 · Sep 12, 2024, 11:30 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Arizona State @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLean

Arizona State

31.5

Texas State

24.6

Texas State win probability: 33%

Margin (Texas State − Arizona State): -6.9 (80% range -28 to 14)

Total: 56.0 (80% range 31 to 82)

Actual: Arizona State 31 – Texas State 28 (margin error 3.9, total error 3.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.