2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 5:00 PM · Michigan Stadium
Ohio State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio State
30.4
Michigan
20.9
Michigan win probability: 27%
Margin (Michigan − Ohio State): -9.5 (80% range -29 to 10)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 29 to 75)
Actual: Ohio State 27 – Michigan 9 (margin error 8.5, total error 15.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.75% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.