2025 Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025, 9:00 PM · Maverik Stadium
Boise State @ Utah State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Boise State
28.3
Utah State
26.7
Utah State win probability: 46%
Margin (Utah State − Boise State): -1.6 (80% range -22 to 19)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Boise State 25 – Utah State 24 (margin error 0.6, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.