2025 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2025, 12:30 AM · Camp Randall Stadium

Illinois @ Wisconsin

Predicted scoreLean

Illinois

27.6

Wisconsin

23.3

Wisconsin win probability: 39%

Margin (Wisconsin − Illinois): -4.4 (80% range -24 to 15)

Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 76)

Actual: Illinois 10 – Wisconsin 27 (margin error 21.4, total error 13.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.