2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 9:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium

Oklahoma State @ UCF

Predicted scoreLikely

Oklahoma State

20.2

UCF

34.2

UCF win probability: 81%

Margin (UCF − Oklahoma State): 14.0 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Oklahoma State 14 – UCF 17 (margin error 11.0, total error 23.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.