2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreToss-up

Sam Houston

26.2

Middle Tennessee

28.1

Middle Tennessee win probability: 55%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Sam Houston): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)

Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Sam Houston 17 – Middle Tennessee 31 (margin error 12.1, total error 6.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.