2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:00 PM · Sun Bowl
New Mexico State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
22.9
UTEP
23.5
UTEP win probability: 51%
Margin (UTEP − New Mexico State): 0.7 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 46.4 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: New Mexico State 34 – UTEP 31 (margin error 3.7, total error 18.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.