2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:00 PM · Protective Stadium
South Florida @ UAB
Predicted scoreLikely
South Florida
35.6
UAB
20.1
UAB win probability: 17%
Margin (UAB − South Florida): -15.6 (80% range -36 to 5)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 32 to 80)
Actual: South Florida 48 – UAB 18 (margin error 14.4, total error 10.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.