2025 Week 12 · Nov 16, 2025, 12:00 AM · Allegiant Stadium
Utah State @ UNLV
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah State
28.8
UNLV
32.8
UNLV win probability: 59%
Margin (UNLV − Utah State): 4.0 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 61.6 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Utah State 26 – UNLV 29 (margin error 1.0, total error 6.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.54% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.52% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.52% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.