2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 9:30 PM · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

North Carolina @ Wake Forest

Predicted scoreLean

North Carolina

21.3

Wake Forest

25.9

Wake Forest win probability: 62%

Margin (Wake Forest − North Carolina): 4.7 (80% range -14 to 24)

Total: 47.2 (80% range 26 to 70)

Actual: North Carolina 12 – Wake Forest 28 (margin error 11.3, total error 7.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.