2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 9:00 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Memphis @ East Carolina

Predicted scoreToss-up

Memphis

26.6

East Carolina

29.0

East Carolina win probability: 56%

Margin (East Carolina − Memphis): 2.4 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Memphis 27 – East Carolina 31 (margin error 1.6, total error 2.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.