2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLikely

Middle Tennessee

23.8

Western Kentucky

33.0

Western Kentucky win probability: 71%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Middle Tennessee): 9.3 (80% range -11 to 31)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 26 – Western Kentucky 42 (margin error 6.7, total error 11.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.