2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Jones AT&T Stadium
UCF @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
UCF
17.7
Texas Tech
30.6
Texas Tech win probability: 80%
Margin (Texas Tech − UCF): 12.9 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: UCF 9 – Texas Tech 48 (margin error 26.1, total error 8.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.