2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:00 PM · University Stadium (NM)

Colorado State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreLikely

Colorado State

24.5

New Mexico

34.3

New Mexico win probability: 73%

Margin (New Mexico − Colorado State): 9.8 (80% range -11 to 31)

Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Colorado State 17 – New Mexico 20 (margin error 6.8, total error 21.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.