2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM · Protective Stadium
North Texas @ UAB
Predicted scoreLikely
North Texas
37.8
UAB
22.8
UAB win probability: 18%
Margin (UAB − North Texas): -15.0 (80% range -36 to 6)
Total: 60.6 (80% range 37 to 86)
Actual: North Texas 53 – UAB 24 (margin error 14.0, total error 16.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.