2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 5:00 PM · Jerry Richardson Stadium

UTSA @ Charlotte

Predicted scoreLikely

UTSA

30.5

Charlotte

20.0

Charlotte win probability: 25%

Margin (Charlotte − UTSA): -10.5 (80% range -31 to 10)

Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: UTSA 28 – Charlotte 7 (margin error 10.5, total error 15.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.